Why Your Gut Feeling Deceives You: What Coaches Really Remember from a Game

You're standing on the sideline, fully focused, and you feel like you have everything in view. After the final whistle you know who played well, where things got stuck and why the game turned. Research shows, however, that this picture is far more incomplete than it feels.

What coaches still know after 45 minutes

In 2008, Peter Laird and Laura Waters examined how reliably coaches remember a game. The participants were qualified football coaches with practical experience. They watched 45 minutes of a game, were allowed to take notes, and then answered a questionnaire on six categories of match events.

The result:

• On average, the coaches correctly recalled 59.2% of the critical events.
• The spread was large (standard deviation ±15.3 percentage points). Some coaches scored well below that.
• For comparison: in an earlier study, sports students without football experience reached only about 42% (Franks & Miller, 1986).

Experience helps – but it doesn't close the gap. Roughly four in ten important moments are missing from memory or recalled incorrectly. And that under conditions that are easier than a real match day: no coaching, no substitutions, no emotions on the sideline.

Why memory on the sideline has gaps

It's not a lack of concentration. Our brain is not a video recorder: it selects, condenses and fills in. On the sideline, that means:

• Attention is limited. If you follow the ball, you see little of what happens away from it – such as how the rest defence is set up or who is offering for a pass.
• What stands out sticks. Goals, mistakes and contentious situations stay in your mind. Unspectacular patterns that repeat twenty times are easily lost.
• Expectations colour perception. What you expect – for example, that your best player will dominate the game again – is what you tend to notice.
• Emotions shift judgement. When you're caught up in the game, you judge the last situation before conceding differently than you would with some distance the next day.

What this means for your coaching

Your gut feeling is valuable: experienced coaches recognise patterns quickly and make in-game decisions when there is no time to check. For your post-match review, however, it is not a reliable basis. Two typical examples:

• “We keep losing the ball in midfield.” A look at the tagged turnovers shows whether that's true – or whether the problem already starts in the build-up.
• “She doesn't track back.” The clips after your own turnovers show whether this is a pattern or an impression from two striking situations.

For your players, this matters just as much: feedback with a concrete clip is easier to understand and fairer than an impression from the sideline.

How to check your gut feeling in four steps

1. Set two or three questions before the game. For example: How often do we win the ball back right after losing it? Where do we lose it?
2. Tag during the game instead of taking notes. With live tagging you set a marker with one click that is linked directly to the video clip. The video becomes your external memory.
3. Write down your impression first, then compare. After the final whistle, briefly note what stood out to you. Then watch the tagged clips and compare.
4. Bring only a few clips to the team talk. Five to ten clips on one topic are enough. With automated playlists they're put together in a few minutes.

Our guide Video analysis in sport shows how to get started with video analysis in general.

FAQ

How much do coaches remember from a game?
In the study by Laird and Waters (2008), qualified football coaches correctly recalled on average 59.2% of the key events of one half.

Do notes help?
Somewhat, but not enough: the coaches in the study were allowed to take notes and still came in at around 59%. Notes without a link to the clip are also hard to verify later.

So is my gut feeling wrong?
No. It's a good starting point and often the only basis during the game. For your post-match review, though, you should check it against the video.

Do I need expensive equipment?
No. A smartphone or tablet and a tripod are enough to get started. More on this: Which camera do I need for video analysis?

Conclusion

Your gut feeling tells you a story about the game. The video shows you which parts of it are true. If you combine both, you make better decisions for the next training session – and can show them to your team.

Check your gut feeling at the next game: Try ATHLYZER free for 30 days, no credit card required · Book a demo